Ryan's image in the state has gone in the wrong direction as his national profile has increased over the course of the last six months. When we polled on Ryan in December his favorability was a positive 38/30 spread. Now it's a negative 41/46 spread. That's a 13 point net shift in the wrong direction for him over the last five months. He's up up 10 points with Republicans from +55 (61/6) to +65 (77/12). But that's more than outweighed by his being down 34 points with Democrats from -35 (16/51) to -69 (10/79). And he's down 9 points with independents from +10 (39/29) to +1 (43/42). Ryan's prudent not to run for the state's open seat given his decline in popularity on the home front.Ryan's "prudent" decision to stay out of the Senate race was explained by Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now in a Journal Sentinel op ed:
Ryan is not giving up his House seat because he would not win the Senate race. And Wisconsin Republicans from the Mississippi River to Lake Michigan and all parts in between are wiping the sweat from their collective brows.